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 February 9, 2004
Commentary-
Today I'm going to follow up on the plays
mentioned yesterday, and take another look at FDX. I'll start with a 15-minute
chart of VTSS.
VTSS gapped up today and continued to climb,
taking this one well into profitable territory. (You know what I did. I scaled
out of some as soon as I sensed the momentum starting to wane.) Traders
frequently have issues that they particularly like, and when I'm not obsessing
over the e-mini, VTSS is one of my favorites. Sure, it's a lower priced stock,
but it was a former high flyer, trades large volume (averaging over 6 million
shares a day right now), and most of all trades in an insanely harmonic
manner.
I'm keeping a close eye on VTSS, since the market, and VTSS itself,
are looking labored up here. (I'm quite concerned by the late day weakness and
the failure to follow through to the upside today.) If it starts to sell, you
know what my plan is. I'm up now, and I'm not planning on giving it all back
(barring a catastrophic adverse move, of course). Oh, and take a look at what I
highlighted off the high of the day.
Let's move on to FISV. I'll show a daily
chart, with a regression channel on the chart.
FISV is at a critical juncture here, in my
opinion. If it is going to thrust up and through the grouping, it needs to
break out here, or pull back a bit and then break out. Another leg down would
take it through the .618 retracement and the trendlines from the weekly chart
in yesterday's commentary (not
shown), nullifying the potential trading plan that I laid out.
Lastly, let's
look at an interesting situation with FDX. I'll show the daily chart.
FDX came off the original pattern/grouping and gave me a
nice trade, but one that didn't follow through very much. It was no home run,
but it was a solid trade. As it came back down, I was watching for some kind of
a pattern to develop. None did. There were groupings to be formed on the way
down, but there always are. I wanted some structure and I didn't get
it.
I
decided to hold off on any play on this one as it sold down. It came down to
test the grouping area again, within seven cents of the previous low. It then
reversed and gave a great entry
signal for those that like to play retests like this. Normally, I don't
like to play these types of 'retests', but this one just set up so nicely that
I thought it was worth a shot. My entry trigger was in the area of 65.50. If
you were playing this one, where would you have gotten in? Why there?
It is quite
interesting to see how FDX reacted to the grouping the second time. A gap up
today has continued the move off the grouping, but then FDX stalled. That's
when I decided to take a small amount off. I'm just feeling that the market is
struggling more in here than I would expect it to, if we are headed up.
It's a tough
call to say what FDX will do from here (and keep in mind that it really doesn't
matter to my game plan what I think FDX might do, anyways). I am
keeping a tight leash on this one, and I'll likely play it very similar to the
last time. I'm finding that FDX is very 'readable' for me on the 15-minute
chart as far as entry triggers, and hence I'm not that concerned if I jump out
and then want to re-enter.
As I mentioned before, over the coming weeks I am going
to try to post more stock pattern trades that I am looking at. It may take me a
few weeks to get started on that, as I am going to be wrapped up in setting up
a new computer and a ton of programs, and it may take me awhile to get it
'tweaked' properly. I may try to have commentaries where I just go over one
stock, the pattern I see and what I am looking for. Then other days I may do
some follow up. Mix in some e-mini setups and some commodities and we have a
plan.
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