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January 8, 2004
Commentary-
Today I'm going to do as promised in
yesterday's column, and do a follow up on the management of the NQ trade. I am
going to show where I scaled out of the trade, using my combination trailing stops and scaled exits
techniques. This will not be a complete treatise on the entire process of
scaled exits and trailed stops, of course, but a simple example of how I
managed this particular trade.
I'll move to a 3-minute chart of the NQ to
detail the management. I'll draw two lines on the chart to highlight the
potential trade area from yesterday's trade. Although the area looks wide on
this close up chart, it's actually only a point and a half wide.


The first arrow shows the area where I first
started to scale out of 1/5 of my position. I used one of my basic trailing
stop techniques from the book. I'm now waiting to see if I get another thrust
out of the NQ so that I can implement another scale out. Let's move ahead on
the chart.


The NQ thrusted up hard from the area of my
first scale out, and triggered another trailed stop exit at the area of the
second arrow. I take off another 1/5 of the trade. I wait, again, hoping to
repeat the process, over and over, until I run out of 'ammo'. Let's move ahead
once more.


I get another
thrust and my trailing stop gets hit again. Off comes another 1/5 of the trade.
This is working out extremely well at this point. It doesn't matter to me if it
drops like rock from here, or continues to behave as we've seen so far. I just
stick with my management plan either way. Let's move forward and see what
happens next.


After some sideways action, the NQ
does another thrust up. I get another trailing stop trigger, and another 1/5
gets taken off. Again, I wait and see what happens from here. Regardless of how
it goes, I know what I am going to do before it happens. I have a plan for
anything that the NQ can do. Let's move ahead once more and see what
happens.


The NQ continued to drop, and I was
triggered on my 'maximum pullback' stop. The rest of the trade was closed at
the fifth arrow. The trade would have been closed in its entirety at this point
regardless of how much I was still holding. This entire procedure, with
multiple variations and options, along with my entire thinking process, is
clearly laid out in Kane Trading on:
Trailing Stops.
I have traded like this in front of more than a few
people, and many find it interesting but they still don't do it themselves.
They like to just pick one place and close it out. Or perhaps take half off at
one point, and then the other half at a latter point. If that works for them, I
say that's great.
I was not able to reach a trading level satisfactory to me until I
perfected my scaled exit trailing stop methods. I have commented many times,
mostly here and to other trading colleagues, that if I couldn't trade like
this, I simply would give up trading. I would feel so handicapped if I were
forced to close in one or two pieces that I don't think I could do it. That's
how important I feel these techniques are.
Now, to wrap this up, do I care
that the NQ finished higher than all the locations that I scaled out at? Not at
all. My play wasn't to hold until the close. It was a play based on technical
aspects of the chart. In that regard, I did an excellent job at following my
'Trading Plan'. The plan did exactly what I wanted it to do. If I felt that
another way to play this, over many trades and over time, would give me better
results, I'd change the plan. I feel this plan is the best plan for me at
this time.
Some people like to hold and let all the shares/contracts ride. If
that works for you, stick with it. That technique didn't work for me, so I came
up with something better for me. I have shown how that plays out in one
case here. I suggest that you experiment with this (after reading the book, of
course, or you won't have the benefit of all that I have learned the hard way)
and see if it improves your trading. It sure has made a difference in my
trading.
The next commentary will be the weekend edition, which I will post
by Sunday.
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