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 October
6, 2004 Commentary (mid-week edition)-
Today I'm
going to update the gold and GOOG charts, and then show something I'm looking
at in energy. First, though, I want to make some comments on the
website.
I had to switch the site over to a new server this morning, and
this came by surprise, as I thought I had a few more days. This may have
produced a few 'anomalies' for visitors from late last night until about noon
today. Everything appears to be working correctly now. Again, if you have sent
any e-mails and I haven't responded within two days, please send again. Also,
if you find any pages that are missing or don't work correctly, please let me know.
I'll start
with gold.
Gold is getting very close to the first
potential trade area. It's almost close enough that I might consider taking an
entry trigger, but that's my style. I have no problem taking multiple entries
if I have to. I have tighter stops that allow me to take this approach. I have
been working on Trade
Management, and I will be explaining in that work, in great detail,
just how I do that, and why I feel it works better for me. Probably, though, I
will be patient and let this setup develop further. It will all depend on the
price action from here.
Let's look at GOOG now.
GOOG is still going up. I have a small part
of the initial position, triggered at just over $100, plus I added back on a
nominal amount on that recent ABCD pullback. It is very late to be adding on,
but this one has worked very well, and I felt a small add back was justified.
With the exception of a large gap down (always possible when an issue makes a
run like this), this add on is now at a pretty safe spot for me, given the
continued run up.
Now let's look at crude oil, basis November.
There is an interesting 5-point pattern here,
but it is set up to end an historical run up. That's not the kind of setup I
would play straight up. I expect it may react off the pattern, though. I will
use the behavior to formulate when and where to possible play this. I also
notice that setups in this 'context' frequently go to a 1.902 area, so I'm
keeping that in mind, too. My thinking is that this may pull back and then blow
this pattern out. The price action will be key here for me.
I'll finish
with a look at the weekly XOI index.
The XOI is just smoking off to new all-time
highs. It's approaching the 1.618 from the previous key high. I'm just keeping
a close eye on this as I watch crude for a possible trade. Also, the arrow
points to where I mentioned in a previous commentary about an ABCD pattern
setting up to take out the all-time highs. The XOI really tipped its hand to me
back then, and I discussed it here at that time.
The next commentary will be the
weekend edition, posted by Sunday evening.
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