|
|
| |
|
 May 8,
2005 Commentary (weekend edition)-
Today I am
going to excerpt some material from the members' area. In the past
week and a half I have seen and shown what I consider the most remarkable
median line and fib/pattern synergies I have ever seen in the minis in the 3
and 13-minute timeframes. I got a few ML sets on the charts, and they were
followed like I've never seen day after day after day, just bouncing off the
lines right at key fib groupings, many times with patterns. Every day it seemed
to get better.
On Friday of the previous week I showed what I thought was a
remarkable layout where the ML set was used repeatedly, and the reversal came
right off the ML lower //. That was the lower timeframe cue for that play.
There was a bigger picture setup there, too, and I waited to point that out to
the readers. I'll pick up on the action from there, making sure it's clear that
a lot of remarkable analysis had already been shown up to that point.
"Boy, did I
get feedback on last week. I expected I might, but I was thinking it would be
to tell me to lay off using 'amazing' so many times. I'd actually have to
check, but I'm pretty sure I got positive feedback from every single member,
and pretty much they were all about the same, saying things like it was the
best week of commentary so far, it was incredibly useful and helpful material,
make sure I don't burn out so that I can keep doing this, and so on. And I
figured that given I did a bit fewer 'before the fact' examples it may not be
as 'popular' of a week, but that sure wasn't the case.
So, before I
move on, I want to say I'm quite proud of my members for that. It seems not one
is in here for 'picks' and all are here for the educational supplement this is
meant to be to learn the details and nuances of what I have put together. That
makes me feel pretty good. I'll add in one more interesting comment before we
start.
I was also a little astonished by how many people commented on
their surprise about my using the daily pivot. Although I have developed this
entire unique methodology I take from anywhere and everywhere anything that
seems to guide me and help me develop an 'edge'. That's how I came to
incorporate ML's. It doesn't all have to be Fibs and patterns. If I feel I can
use it, I will. Imagine what else I haven't shown yet, for fear of crowding the
charts up too much and overwhelming people.
Today I had the greatest
continuation example for what we have been looking at, and I'm not sure I can
show it. The outage from last week in the ES, well, it's messing up the ML
layout for the program I use in here. QCharts puts blank space in the missing
area, and hence the timing aspect of the ML's is unaffected. The DT program, or
the way the data is collected and inputted into the program, simply starts
where the data left off. For this reason the ML's are all off now.
I can show it anyway, and do my
best to recreate the lines where they are on, say, QCharts. It will likely be
indistinguishable from what the set would look like if the data was correct.
Given that approach, I guess I'll show it, as long as it's clear the lines are
not the actual ML's, but my best approximation as to where they are as I see
them on my other platforms. Gosh darn Merc, messing me up here. This series is
just so fantastic I really want to follow up on what was so well-received last
week.
I'll start with yet one more thing that I didn't show from Friday's
low. Recall how that hit this nice, downsloping ML? How about the bigger
picture? Was there anything else there? Take a look at this.
I added in the 1.272 external retracement
(seeing a pattern here?) and the first reaction line from that larger ML set
(seeing another pattern here?). Oh, and BTW, how about that ABCD pattern that
came together at the exact same spot. You may have to make an estimate for the
high on the ES (the A point), since the contract wasn't trading. I simply used
the SPY and the cash S&P and came up with a good estimate to work off of.
It was all there, right at the reversal area. How does that downsloping ML from
the last commentary look now? It's all there, if you just set it up.
Let's move to
today's open.
The ES gaps up and runs right up to that very
same ML, right at a 1.128 external retracement. I'm thinking there, or a small
overshoot to the 1.272. I start to focus on the price action on the lower
timeframes. Can you see the framework? I'm not being cocky when I say this, but
how easy is this? It's right there, I didn't even have to add it to my
charts.
Let's move on, to something that is borderline silly. I'm not in
any way saying anyone should feel silly if they didn't see this. I'm also not
saying this is all that easy to see when you are learning, or in real time. By
silly, I mean this is so obvious to anyone familiar with my methodology I have
to chuckle, seriously, when I see this stuff come together. No, it's doesn't
always 'work', but it gives me what I think is a reasonable edge. Take a look
at this.
The ES rolls right off that ML, does an ABCD
pullback right to a .382 and that ML lower //, with time symmetry. But that's
not it. That's not even close. There is also my 'typical' modified Schiff ML
lower // and the standard ML right there, based on the ABCD (not shown). That's
it, right? Nope, the best is yet to come. I added a set on from the action of
late Thursday and Friday that I thought price was respecting all over the
place, just to have that 'handy', in case it told me anything today. Let me add
that, and I'll zoom in a bit. Brace yourself.
The ES reacted to the lines in this set at
least six times up to this point, and didn't really violate the set at any
point to any significant degree. This set shows me a 'measured pullback'
factoring in price and time, compared to that last move the set is anchored
around. That's the main benefit for me here. Notice how the set hit right at
today's reversal high at the other line and 1.128. Nice. Now, how seriously was
I looking at a long here? That's why I said silly. This isn't borderline
ridiculous, it's totally ridiculous. That's no guarantee, but I sure
thought I had an edge at this point, if I got a trigger.
Let's see how
it played out.
The ES came right off that ML lower //, and
despite how it may look on this chart, one tick from the .382 retracement. Just
look at how that previous set was used today, and how the additional set from
Friday's chart work guided and supported today's action. As a small aside,
notice how the ES fell a tiny bit short of that ML at the high of the day. I
would be noticing that and drawing in a possible undershoot line at that lower
//. Notice it did fall short there? That undershoot line lined up with that
.382 and ML lower // from the other set quite nicely."
The crazy
thing about this is that the series before this was as good, maybe even better,
and what followed was also just as good. It was just using the lines, fibs, and
patterns time after time after time. But don't think you just put some ML sets
on, pick some fibs, and that's it. I have developed an entire methodology
around the synergies I've found, and there are a lot of guidelines and nuances
that I have found that I feel are critical to understand.
I try to
cover this extensively in the members' area, but some of
it is so chart intensive that I can't do it justice unless I am working one-on-one with someone. I'm
not hawking for 'business' here, in fact perhaps I may not even continue to
offer my material at all to 'the public' in the future, given that, as I have
said, it is starting to detract from my trading. I just want it to be clear
that what I have developed has taken me give or take about 18,000 'screens
hours', and even if I explain it to someone one-on-one it's still a lot of hard
work. You can't learn this from some free commentary and reading a few books.
If you think that's the case, for this methodology or any other, you are going
to be in for a big surprise.
I formed the members' area for the members, at their
request, to provide a place to continuously see the details of what I a doing
on a daily basis, and what I am developing. I feel that I have advanced my
methodology as much in the last year as I have in all the time up until then.
Given that a lot of that advancement happened after I wrote the last book,
well, you can see how useful the members' area can be.
The next
commentary will be next weekend's edition, posted by Sunday May 15,
2005.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
 NOTE: Reading this page or
any page on the Kane Trading website, or utilizing this website and any
material
contained herein in any way, shall constitute an
acknowledgment that you have read, understood and agreed
to all
the disclaimers,
terms & conditions, and
policies of this site.
|
|
|
This
website is best viewed with MSIE 6.0, text size set to medium, and screen
resolution set to 1024 by 768.
Copyright
© 2005 Kane Trading. All rights reserved.
|
|
