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 September 25, 2005 Commentary (weekend
edition)-
Well, I have bad news for everyone. I'm in
that kind of mood today. I just don't want to do any charts. I did some
incredible charts all week for the members' area, and I'm 'charted out'. I want
to ramble. Not a tirade, just some good, lengthy discussion that I feel is
worth the time and effort. I'll let you be the judge, if you make it
through all the way. I will try to get a Jim's Chart of the Week posted by
tonight, though. And if you are here strictly for the charts, sorry. I have to
do this for your own good. In the past I have gotten a lot more comments about
my honesty than for my chartwork, so I thought it was time to do a chartless
commentary. Next week we'll get back to charts.
Now, given that the people who have
been buying the new books and sending me their thoughts are previous full set
buyers (the new full set buyers haven't gotten through the first seven books
and the two articles yet that I recommend reading before the new books) and
they are 'biased' towards my work, the comments have just been fantastic. I
hope to post some of these on the testimonials page at some point. It really
does have me wondering if I should be releasing material like this,
though.
I was talking with an advanced student of mine, and he strongly
felt that I should take the books off the market, offer them only with a
mentorship, and require a non-disclosure statement to be signed. From what I am
gathering this is much more the norm in such situations. I am still thinking
over what my future options are for my work, and what changes I may be making
down the line. At the very least if I write up any more new discoveries (I'm
hoping not to write any more, for real this time) I think they would only be
released in the context of a mentorship, and only with a non-disclosure
agreement.
I point all this out now to give a bit of a heads up
that at some point I may be making some changes. It seems not a day goes by
that I don't have greater and greater qualms about making my hard-earned,
proprietary material so readily available. I'm not saying I have anything that
can earn those insane rates of returns that you see posted on every 'magical',
'super-secret of the ages' trading website out there. I just have 20,000 screen
hours of hard work developing and testing my methodology (and without in any
way trying to sound arrogant, I feel I am 'gifted' in the mathematical,
charting, and numbers arena), and I have taken the time to detail it all out in
the book series, holding pretty much nothing back.
I just don't
see anyone out there who has made the effort to do this. There is little, or
more likely no motivation to do what I have done. I'm not going to sell that
many books, so the money can't be much of an incentive. I'm not after fame, or
being known, so that can't be it. The project just evolved, as I have
explained, and I have been so close to it that I really didn't think much about
what I was doing. People asked me for help, and I tried to give it to them. Now
that the project has gone so far, and the series is pretty well laid out, I can
step back and see what I've done. I can listen to the comments that I get back
from traders.
The books are not designed to 'prove' or demonstrate that I have
found some new way to trade, or that my methodology is 'the best', or that
Fibonacci's or median lines, or my unique numbers and unique combinations of
techniques are 'great'. My books show how I put together my 'Trading Plan' from
start to finish. They show many various options for each aspect, to give
readers choices they can look over for each area, and see if the things I have
developed may help them. All I present is what I feel has proven itself to me.
I try to do this in great detail, with a lot of sequential presentation, and a
lot of trader talk.
Is my methodology 'the best'? It is for me, for if I had
anything better, then that would be my methodology. Is it 'the best' for anyone
else? I have no idea. It may be of no use to anyone else at all (that's not the
feedback I get, though). The idea is that I am showing what I have discovered
in my 20,000 hours exploring the markets. I feel I am a good teacher, and I
have been told this many times. If this is the case, then my work may be able
to help some traders out as they go on their 20,000-hour journey. That's
it, nothing more. No claims, no percent monthly return numbers, no comparisons
to this or that person's methodology.
If you want to see what I have worked so hard
on, to see if you can use some of it, and if you like detail, without anything
held back, then you may like my work. If you want to work hard and see if you
can make it as a professional trader (or if you just want to know more about
how to develop a plan to trade part time, or manage your portfolio), and you
are looking for material to study that is laid out sequentially, with a lot of
thought given to making it understandable and practical, then I think my book
set may be able to help you.
As I gain more and more experience working with people
as a trading educator (which is worlds apart from trading), I fight a constant
battle trying to explain how I am different, what my material offers that
others don't, and on and on. It is the most frustrating part of what I do here,
by far. It is so frustrating that it has many times had me close to folding the
website entirely. You see, on one hand I have my core group of full set buyers
who are perhaps members to my service, and have done a mentorship, some more
than once. They lavish me with praise that has me constantly struggling with
not getting a swelled head.
Then there are the endless e-mails I get asking what is
different about what I do, how can I prove it without any cost or obligation to
the person, and even requests to send charts on a daily basis from the members'
section, for free, until they see 'I'm for real'. (As all my members could
attest to, seeing my charts without my analysis would be worse than useless, as
it would be completely without 'context'. I may trade it, fade it, or stand
aside, depending on what happens, and I usually explain this in great detail.)
I have tried everything I can think of to explain why I am unique, but to no
avail. I'm not sure anyone who I have spent endless hours doing e-mails with
has ever bought anything. On the other hand, I get plenty of orders where the
person asks no questions at all beforehand.
In a vain
attempt to address this issue once again, I will point out a few things that
should right away tip off anyone who is astute and observant that what I do is
not like anything you see 'out there'. If you have seen another website that
has the characteristics I am about to discuss, please let me know, as I
want to send them an e-mail and congratulate them. I doubt anyone reading this
will send me a single link.
Here's how you can tell that I am not like anyone else
out there. First, I make no claims. None. I don't tell you that you will make
any money, with my methodology or any methodology, no less ridiculous claims of
unreal rates of return. As soon as you see that, scratch that website off the
list. I don't know you, I don't know what your abilities are, your financial
situation is, or how hard you are willing to work. I have no idea if you can
make money in this business, and neither does anyone else. If they say they do,
run.
Next, do they have in the neighborhood of one hundred and seventy
seven free commentaries, each showing great detail, most with four to six
charts each? No, I don't show everything, because if I did I wouldn't have the
money to run this website. I want to help people, but I want to be fairly
compensated. The money from the books helps to run this website, and make the
material available for the very serious trader. I want to know what websites
have this amount of material, with this detail, some of it showing brand new,
proprietary material for the first time anywhere, for free. (I have been told,
literally more times than I can count, that my free material far exceeds all
the paid material the person has seen.) If they don't, scratch them
off.
Now, do they have approximately two thousand pages written up in
their books, all of it designed to give the reader choices and options in the
quest to develop their own 'Trading Plan', or do they tell you that you don't
need to wade through a lot of material, and that they know what is best for
you? I don't know what is best for you. I don't even know if anything I present
will be of any use to you. I provide all my work, from the perspective of an
experienced teacher, to try to help you to find what works for
you. I am not trying to 'sell my method' as the best. If you don't see
this level of material, in explicit detail, then scratch them off.
How about
work? Do the 'other guys' tell you it's going to be a lot of work? Or do they
say it's fairly easy? Learn my methodology, use my software, and you'll be
making the 'big bucks'. My 'slogan' has always been 'for those who want to do
the work'. I'm not pulling any punches. This is a profession like any other,
and I feel it is among the most difficult ones. If you think it will take you
any less work, energy, resources, and so on than becoming a doctor, attorney,
commercial pilot, or whatever, then just click off this website right now. You
are at the wrong place.
How many people make it through med school, or
architecture school? All of them? Hah. Many professions are tough, with a high
failure rate. This is one of them. It's not for everyone, and many will not be
able to make it. By saying this, straight up, out loud, in print here I am
losing business. Many will take me up on my offer, and click off the website.
They are gone now. I might have been able to sell them books. I don't care that
I lost a sale, and that it was my doing. What I show in my work is very
detailed, very intense. It takes study, and it takes work. And not everyone is
capable of developing the level of skill needed to be a successful trader over
the long haul.
Do you hear this on the other websites? Are they telling you how
hard it really is, and that many fail, even after trying their best? I do. I
want to sell my books to those that understand this, and have made the
commitment beforehand, before finding my website, that they want to try to
succeed. Then they buy my books to assist them in that process, a journey that
is personal to them, and has little to do with my methodology. If you don't see
this attitude, and this level of honesty at the other websites, scratch them.
In fact, run.
If you think I'm being tough here, you should try to 'talk me into'
mentoring. When I say I take few students on, I mean it. Don't get intimidated
and not ask me about mentoring, but I generally start with 'Tell me why I
should consider taking you on?' If you think I'm joking or exaggerating, let
some time pass, send me an e-mail asking if I will mentor you, and come across
as semi-serious and see what happens. Since I will have no way of knowing you
are responding to what I am writing here, if I were 'hawking for business' I'd
be taking a heck of a chance with a 'big dollar item' not saying sure, let's
get you signed up. If they will teach anyone with the money, scratch them
off.
Here's a big one. Links. Do they have links to 'competitors' on
their websites? I just love these 'educational' websites that won't link to
anyone who might be a 'competitor'. I don't have any competitors. I'm not a
'vendor'. I'm a trader (who was once a math teacher) who wrote some books
because I think they may help some people. I have nothing to lose by telling
you who is out there. Look at my links
page, and especially look at my recommended reading page. Do
these people that you think are looking out for you, that you think want to
help you develop your 'Trading Plan', for you, unique to you, list books from
'competitors' that they feel you really should read? Look at my pages, again.
Seriously. If they try to 'hide' the other people from you, run.
And although
there are many more things I could cover (but will wrap up with this one), do
they have a members' area where you can see the methodology applied on a nearly
daily basis, with many setups shown in advance? An area that discusses the
ongoing developments, with detailed discussion and chartwork, with follow up?
To see the methodology being 'worked' as things unfold, to supplement the book
work? Does it include a dated archive on the order of a thousand pages in Word
equivalent format? Books are great, but seeing the methodology applied to the
current market situations, with the chance to e-mail methodology questions and
have them addressed personally or in the commentary, can be invaluable to the
learning process.
Note that I said 'learning process'. I am talking about an
educational service, not a service that gives picks or a live intraday service
that tells you were to buy the minis. I am talking about an educational
resource to help further develop the 'Trading Plan'. The focus is on you
developing your plan, not on selling a service where someone does your
work for you. If they don't do this, scratch them.
Okay, now
this wasn't a figurative exercise. I fully expected everyone to go through his
or her 'favorites' bookmarks as we progressed. Now tell me, how many do you
have left? If you really do have any, as I said, please send me the
links right now. This should make it completely clear that I am not like anyone
else out there. None of this shows my material is of any use to you, and it
wasn't meant to. That's what the free commentaries are for. Look them over. If
that doesn't do it for you, keep looking. Maybe someone else can help you find
something better suited for you. But don't even think for one second that I'm
like anyone else out there.
Don't even begin to lump what I do, how I run this
website, or anything that I offer in with anyone else, because it's crazy to do
so. There is nothing like what I have put together anywhere. If what I
was doing wasn't so unique, and in my opinion wasn't so useful, I
wouldn't be getting ripped off as much as I am. This is just my opinion, but I
swear I am the most ripped off person out there. It doesn't matter to me if I
am, or if in reality I'm in a hundredth place, I just know I see my material
all over the place, in software, in postings, on charts and websites, all over.
If it isn't great material, why are they using it so much?
I don't want
to sound negative, but as I conclude, I know that I've probably failed again. I
probably haven't convinced anyone of the value of my work, and of my book set.
And I can live with that. I do know that I have clearly shown how I differ from
'the rest', and if nothing else, at least you can look at your now empty
'favorites', and start to ponder why no one made it through the gauntlet. At
least you may be able to see the difference between focusing on sales, and
focusing on laying out a methodology, in full detail, for those that aren't
afraid to work hard. And if I've succeeded at that (and I'm betting I have), my
time here today was well spent.
The next commentary will be next weekend's
edition, posted by Sunday evening, October 2, 2005.
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