|
|
| |
|
 October
5, 2008 Commentary (weekend edition)-
Holy
mackerel. It seems like a lifetime of things have happened just since the last
commentary. Let me start with a quote from how I ended the August 3, 2008
commentary: "We are at a tremendous juncture here I feel, with lots of action
ready to unfold. The talking heads all say oil is done, the dollar is
strengthening, the bear is over, financials are a buy and the credit crisis is
over, housing is starting to turn around, and all is well once again. Heck, we
even had some job data today (keep in mind, it is now Wednesday, July 30th as I
conclude this commentary here) showing job growth. There is only one
problem here for me in 'all is well' land, and that is that queasy feeling in
the pit of my stomach I just can't shake. You know, the one that you get right
before something really bad is about to happen..." Wow, did my 'spidey sense'
do me proud.
I don't even know where to begin. Maybe I don't even need to say
anything, since everyone is following along as this unfolds. There are still a
lot of people out there saying this is a great buying opportunity, the
bottom of the housing market is very near, the drop in oil prices will add
right to the bottom line of companies and that earnings will be up this
quarter not down, and on and on. But, unlike before, at least now some are
willing to say maybe things aren't 100% rosy, as they've said all along. This
is part of the process that needs to happen as this unfolds, and it has finally
begun. But don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the end of the trouble is
near.
My viewpoint has been clear all along. I've been very vociferous
about what I thought was about to unfold, and so far it has, almost word for
word, in my opinion. I was able to point out which major stocks/companies would
fail, and even in which order. I discussed this many times in the chat room and
in various e-mails to traders I know. I didn't post the names in here, as I
didn't want any heat about contributing to any runs on companies. That may
sound a little crazy, but you never know, so I decided not to play that aspect
up too much.
For fun (and I hope this won't be too boring for some), I'll quote
a few things I've said in the past. This will be a bit 'long', and if you don't
want to read it all, just skip ahead to the chartwork. From the November 4,
2007 commentary: "The sub-prime crisis is just beginning to unfold, in my
opinion, and I still believe it will prove to be bigger than the S&L
crisis. This is one for the history books. I think it is so deep, and so
pervasive, in so many places that they simply can't admit it is, that it will
take awhile to shake it all out. Shoes will be dropping, at 'random', for a
long time to come. That's my take."
From the December 2, 2007 commentary: "The
first thing I want to mention is that, as I mentioned before when I did my
'joke chart' awhile back, this, again, may be the start of a bear market. I
don't have the time to get into all my thoughts in detail, but notice the
change of character in this last 'correction' from corrective looking (an ABCD)
in the last one, to impulsive looking in this one. Notice, too, the similarity
to the price action when the last bear ended and we transitioned to bull, in
'02-'03. We set a nominal new top, then back down, now up again. Notice the
'head and shoulders' the bull started with, and what might be unfolding
now.
I read a great article recently comparing this longest running
cyclical bull of all time (if my information is correct) with the bull of
'42-'47, and boy, is that eerily similar. The only question I have is whether
this is a cyclical bear or the second bear leg of a larger secular bear. The
fact that few, if any people are asking that makes me think it may be the
latter. We have a lot of fundamental things in place to support that,
and we are once again poised for a '73-'74 repeat that I see no one noticing. I
have been saying for a long time that I think the sub-prime crisis will be
worse than the S&L crisis, and just the other day I heard a guy say it's
only a blip compared to that."
"My point is, I am not closing my eyes to all
that is going on and saying the bull must go on, no way can there be a bear,
like almost everyone I see. It seems no matter what comes out the rah-rah
cheerleading squad just pump it right back up and explain how everything is
great. This was about the same attitude when '73-'74 hit. Nominal new highs,
and lots of 'The bear is DEAD' talk. Then they killed it to new lows. I'm just
keeping my eyes open for the possibilities, in case they unfold, while I'm
swimming in a sea of bulls."
From the Jan 6, 2008 commentary: "Wow, is this market
something, or what? If the bear isn't upon us now, this is one heck of a fake
out. It is shaping up like the obvious head and shoulders is going to play out,
just as it set up the end of the last bear. The chickens are coming home to
roost. You can't create bubble after bubble and not have someone pay the price.
They can't create something out of nothing, they can only 'steal' from those
that can't stop them. And the ones who have been stolen from are you and I. The
housing bubble was the biggest joke I have ever seen, and that's from someone
who lived in one of the biggest areas for this in the country.
I used to
comment that every time I drove to 'town' I saw another new development
started, hundreds or even thousands of houses. It was so unsustainable it was
just plain crazy. Add on the 'no doc, no qualifying' creative loans, and it's
bubble city. And just like in '00 with the NASDAQ, it's time to pay the
fiddler. Unless they find some way to bubble us out of this and just postpone
the inevitable, we may see '73-'74 again now, or just another nice bear. Again,
this is all just my opinion, so take it with a grain of salt and form your own
opinion. And regardless of my opinion, I only consider nice-looking setups no
matter what I 'think' might be unfolding. My bias is just down over the
intermediate term, and may soon be down longer-term."
From the
February 3, 2008 commentary: "Now, as far as the market, it's 'officially' a
bear market now, admittedly, by most analysts. But all of them are already
trying to pick the bottom, or say the bottom is in. Myself, I don't believe in
two month bear markets. Two month corrections, yes, but not bear markets. The
thing that supports my higher probability scenario that this is a bear now is
that so many are now bullish already, and calling the end. Look back to the
last bear. There were at least five, up to seven insane rallies (depending on
how you count them) before it was over, and every one they said 'was it'. Here
we go again. If everyone stayed bearish, then I'd worry. For now the trend is
clearly up, and that's great, but if it turns down, I won't be fighting that, I
can tell you right now. I'm just setting up the potential short areas, and
watching what it does."
"As I close, be very skeptical of claims made on the
idiot box, because they all seem to have an agenda. I'm not saying we aren't
going to new highs, as we may be. The level of manipulation seems insane to me
(I am not a big believer that we have a 'free market'), but that is just my
opinion based on what I see. With all that going on, and a constant, nonstop
rah-rah team, who knows. I just know that the bear always comes, and it seems
it always fools most people, multiple times in many cases, until they are all
demoralized, and then it ends. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame
on me. Keep that in mind as you find your areas. Just don't get wedded to one
side in the face of areas and price action..."
From the March 2, 2008 commentary:
"As I close, I must say I am getting a bit worried when I hear things like
'muni' bond liquidation by large hedge funds. I'm getting to be a real doom and
gloomer about the concept of systemic risk and the house of cards that is an
876 trillion dollar (that's the number I just heard, I don't know how accurate
it is) global derivatives nightmare. When you see how easily the '87 crash
perpetuated itself, or the LTCM debacle, you wonder what would happen if a
similar event occurred with this level of leverage. Nowadays a rogue trader
loss over seven billion is old news ten minutes later. What has the financial
world come to? For those that want to follow up on this there are two books
(among many others) you might check out:
A Demon of our own Design by
Richard Bookstaber
Financial Armageddon by Michael Panzner"
From the
April 6, 2008 commentary: "Before we start let me just make some broad comments
about the market and Wall Street in general. First off, let me say that I have
never seen so many bulls in my life. Everyone I hear, it seems, has
'officially' called the bottom, and is saying it is now time to buy with both
fists, the 'buy of the century' right here. I was under the impression that
'everyone' isn't going to be right and make tons of money. Yeah, once in awhile
if they search hard they find someone to say something like 'well, be just a
little cautious', but that's about it.
If someone came out and said they expect new
lows (INDU under say 7,000 and the S&P back in the 700's), well, they not
only wouldn't even get on television, but they would be stoned or booed off the
stage, or maybe cause outrageous bursts of laughter. Kind of like what the same
type of people had happen to them in '73. And we know what happened then. I'm
not saying it will happen, but I'm saying it may happen, and right now
everyone is on one side of the boat.
I have been saying for a long time I thought
the sub-prime would be as big, or bigger, than the S&L crisis. Well, it's
way past that. Two places just announced writing off another $23 billion.
Depending on the estimates you hear, the total is now over $600 billion or so.
I just heard it's likely to exceed $1.2 trillion. To me, that's just not
factored in, and the ramifications have just not trickled down. It's like once
you admit the problem, the problem then, therefore, has no repercussions. How
crazy is that thinking? And I saw another guy, he said even if it is a
trillion, compared to worldwide GDP, that's nothing, it's totally no big deal.
No big deal? I just can't comprehend what I am seeing and hearing. All they
care about is getting back to business and getting another bubble going in
something ASAP, so they can milk some other poor suckers.
The part that
bothers me the most, though, is how it seems like the level of manipulation is
just going to levels that are far, far beyond unprecedented, into fantasyland
territory. See, the whole house of cards will further tumble (to where they
should be, in my opinion) if housing prices go down any more. Everything done
so far, the bailouts (yes, they are bailouts, which we'll all see when
the collateral can't be collected on), the manipulations, all the insane
programs, are all based on house prices staying here. I saw a chart of how far
we are now from 'trend', and they have a long ways to go, and that's
without any overshooting, which would be normal. Just do a search on price to
rent (kind of the equivalent to P/E for the stock market) and you'll see how
far we have to go still.
Now, given everything is based on no further drop, part
of the plan is to basically say they simply won't allow prices to drop. Like
saying you can buy a stock at x dollars, but understand, it can only be sold
for x dollars or more in the future, it will not be allowed to sell for less.
Just imagine that. Well, to me, that is what they are trying to do right now.
And if the whole thing finally breaks down, and prices do break hard, then
there is a big, big mess, and a lot of wasted dollars, courtesy of you and
I.
You just can't inflate a bubble as huge as the housing prices were,
and then simply say 'they aren't going down, we won't allow it'. Talk about not
having a free market. Are you all seeing what is happening? The government
might buy up all the mortgages, I heard? Today I heard of a new law that says
you can't foreclose, it would be illegal not to offer the owner the
ability to rent for at least ten years. Can you imagine that? I can tell you
one thing for sure, if that law passes I sure wouldn't loan money out for a
house.
Well, I won't go on and on any more, because this is just a tiny
fraction of what I have heard, and it makes me sick."
"As I close,
let me just say that I am not convinced, like everyone else seems to be, that
the 'low is in' and 'the bear is dead'. Maybe it is, and I'll surely be on the
long side if it is going up, but until proven otherwise, I'm always ready to be
on the short side whenever the setups come together. I just can't believe all
the aftermath is done from the insane housing bubble, or that all these new
'programs', bailouts, regulations, and law changes are not going to come back
to bite us hard. But, the market may stay 'irrational' longer than those that
fight it can stay solvent, so I always 'go with the immediate flow'."
From the May
4, 2008: "I decided that I'm not going to bother to talk about how the
fundamentals still have me adamantly in the longer-term bear camp. I'm not
going to mention how I just heard that possibly one-third of all regional banks
will ultimately fail. Or that I saw an official on television saying not 'if',
but 'when', your bank fails don't panic, because the FDIC insurance has you
covered.
Or that crude hit about $120 and we don't even have any serious
supply disruptions. Or that the CRB Index breakout is an over thirty year
breakout, so it seems unlikely food and the commodities will be coming back
down for very long. Or that the dollar breakdown is the same over thirty year
breakdown, and any bounce here may not do more than 'test' that breakdown area.
Or that bankruptcies are up 47.7% from last year. Or that every last person I
have heard has said we have no recession, and that the bull is back, the bear
is dead. Or...
Ah, I guess I did it again, I said I wasn't going to mention any of
that. And that's only a drop in the bucket of the things out there. But, alas,
the market doesn't seem to care, and all I would consider trading is what I see
on the charts. It's almost a matter of just being aware that it seems like we
have potentially the worst fundamentals since the great depression, and
everyone is arguing we have bull conditions in place, and new highs are totally
justified, in fact, I've heard a few DOW 25,000 predictions in the fairly near
term. Said with straight faces! So, for now, I just ponder how so many can look
at these fundamentals and scream bull. You see the market going up and scream
bull, well, I can't argue that. But justifying the rise based on the
fundamentals? I give up..."
From the June 1, 2008 commentary: "I've been spending a
lot of time pondering this enormous financial mess that we are in. Lately that
takes some motivation, because every last person I hear on talking head
television says we are over the crisis, everything is great, there is no
inflation, the recession never happened, energy has topped, four dollar gas and
five dollar diesel won't slow the consumer down one bit (or have any effect at
all, really, on anyone or the economy), housing has bottomed, and things really
couldn't be much better, in this, the best of all possible worlds. These are
all things I really did hear, over and over, this week alone. Hard to be
worried or see the need to ponder anything bad when 'it's all good'. There's
only one problem: I just don't buy the propaganda for one second."
So, what was
the point of all that quoting? I don't know, maybe none. I just wanted to sum
up some of the thoughts I have had as this has unfolded, perhaps as a ready
comparison with what has been spouted on television and such at the same time.
Now they say that although we may have a recession now (we may have a
recession???), because of what has been done, as far as government
intervention, well, it will surely be extremely mild. Yeah, and everything else
they've said has been accurate, too, right? I think there are two likely
possibilities here. I'll throw them out there just for kicks, then we'll get to
the charts, the only thing that really matters to me, in the end.
The bottom
line is that I am appalled at the level of manipulation, government
intervention, nearly total loss of free markets, and frankly put, the total
screwing of the Average Joe that has taken place. But this is not a novel
viewpoint. The problem is, the calls to stop what was happening happened years
ago, and even a lot further back than that by some. That was the time to act.
What we have now is the equivalent, to me, of taking a guy on a motorcycle and
running him, without a helmet on, into a brick wall at 100 M.P.H. Now we sit
here debating what will become of him, and how our interventions now will or
won't save him. And some argue we are working on him so aggressively that he
will barely need a few bandages.
I think one possibility is that
things may ease, the market, housing, and all the rest will be manipulated up
in a grand reflation (which will then lead to even greater problems later, in
my opinion), and for now, things will be okay. But look at Japan, and how it
didn't work there. Personally, I think the mess created is so much larger and
deeper than is even being discussed, or even hinted at, that I just don't see
this scenario playing out. We may get a big, 'fake' pop up, but just like a
rally in a bear market, it is just another selling opportunity.
The other
possibility I see is that this will linger on and on and on, as more and more
shoes drop, and we see that the amount involved, and needed, is far, far
greater than the entire amount the Fed and the Treasury could ever come up
with, no matter how much 'funny money' they come up with. I heard one
commentator say they can come up with an 'infinite' amount of money. Well, I
think we may get a chance to see if they actually can, and if that 'solves' the
problem. Always keep in mind the unintended consequences that go with
everything. Hey, I'm not saying we aren't on the verge of a major rally here,
only that it will likely be just another bear market rally (more on this
shortly). I just think this latter scenario is more likely. Again, it's now
almost twenty years for Japan, and look at their market.
The thing
about all this is that it is so unique and so unprecedented for us. There are
parallels to Japan, but there are many different things, one being I think this
is much more widespread. It's hard to rate the level of manipulation and
intervention (and interference), but that also seems unprecedented. The debt
levels, the size of the credit bubble, the levels of leverage, it's just unlike
anything seen before. My gut says 'we are toast', but honestly, it's so
complex, and so much is hidden, and not known to me or the public, it's hard to
make any kind of good assessment. But I'll say one thing, we came so close to a
total meltdown (I had told several people the sign to watch for was if they
'break the buck' in the money market), that I'm just plain scared all the time
now. I'm not calmed by this maniacal bail-out plan, I'm just scared. Your guess
is as good as mine what happens next, but I just don't see how it could be
good.
So, what is this about a rally? Well, with the VIX so high, we need
a rally. But, it may just be establishing a new range between forty and fifty,
too, given we are in unprecedented times. Many breadth indicators are strongly
saying we should bounce soon, but the volume isn't there for a 'capitulation'
yet. Keep in mind, though, as I mentioned, we may see four or five or six
'capitulations', as we did in the last bear, before it is over. The talking
heads always talk like one capitulation is it. How funny. Also note, as I
mentioned in a previous commentary about 300+ point up days and how they are a
bear market/recession phenomenon, we are now up to nine 300+ point up days so
far in this bear if my count is right, so, so far, it's still acting totally
like a bear.
My thoughts on this upcoming Monday are that we may rally 500 or
even 1,000 points, or we may crash 1,000 to 1,500 points (by the way, keep an
eye out for an 'emergency' Fed rate cut (especially if you are short) of
perhaps even 50 beepers, maybe as early as Monday, which may be highly
intermingled with these scenarios). I know, it may just be another trading day,
but I suspect if not Monday then soon it will do something wild one way or the
other.
Keep in mind the DOW sold off almost 500 points from its Friday
high to close right on its low, and the VIX didn't even pop to a new high. The
volume wasn't very high, but it is increasing on many stocks. The chart of the
month shows the areas just below I am watching. Please note that the chart
really needs the weekly uptrending line set I have shown, as two key lines come
into the two key lines from the downsloping set I showed, and these uptrending
lines are critical. I left it to the reader to put those lines on his or her
chart, to see where they hit the downsloping lines I showed.
Okay, I went
a lot too crazy there, and my fingers are already tired, so let's get to work.
I'll start with last month's chart of the month, showing the data as it is
today.
Here's the chart of the month, posted on
9/6/08, with the data as it is now on 10/3/08 as I write this. The third last
arrow shows where the data was on the chart when it was posted. The DOW did
jump up there, right to the next line up (the median line, in red), where it
rolled hard back down to that lower parallel, at the second last arrow, which
was on the chart when it was posted. It then bounced up to the median line
again, right off the area I showed in advance, and then right back down to the
lower parallel, where it closed the week on the low, at a new low for the
entire bear market. You have to look closely at the chart to see how well the
lines were used, but to me, that's remarkable. But it gets even better.
Let's go back
to the very same daily chart we studied last time.
Last time we left off at the bar that popped
up off the (D) point in green lettering. This was the bounce I told the cool
story about last time (the reader is encouraged to review the last commentary).
There was some nice follow through the next day, before that nice bounce faded
off into the sunset, as I mentioned last time I suspected would happen, as my
working premise for the short ABCD in blue lettering plays out. It really gets
going, and drops hard right to the median line in red, shown by the first
arrow. Keep in mind the set that is shown on the previous weekly chart, and how
those lines are being 'seen' at the same time these lines are being
'seen'.
The DOW bounces like a rocket up to the second arrow, over a
thousand points in what seemed like a heartbeat. We all remember it, the big
'capitulation' and government intervention days. Probably a good thing, though,
as we may have 'went under' if something wasn't done. It wasn't so much a
matter of fear, to me, as it was forced liquidation, which feeds on itself in a
negative feedback loop until incomprehensible damage is done. Anyway, it goes
right up to the area I'm watching at the second arrow, and many, many issues
did it with an ABCD of some sort. Lines, pattern, Fibs, it all came together
across the board here, and the sentiment was extremely bullish. It was a true
gift from the market (more on this later).
The DOW drops right off the area,
right to the division line at the third arrow, bounces up, and rolls hard,
right back down to the median line. Up again, then right back down to a new
low, at the median line again. Go back to the weekly and see how it fit that
set. And down lower? All sorts of lines, patterns, Fibs. The way the pieces fit
together was pure art to me. I don't mean it was 'art' and not 'science' in
that sense, I mean it was so beautiful it was like a nice piece of artwork. Do
all the work (this is just basic framework, showing you the sets in advance,
and then letting you watch as it unfolds) and you should see some pretty nice
action. And now we sit at a key line again. See the chart of the month for some
areas I am watching.
I wanted to switch gears a bit this time, as I said I
would, so let's look at a few stocks. I'll start with AGU on a daily
chart.
I sent notes on AGU to a few of my students,
telling them to work this one up, for study purposes. Here is just a basic
overview. A nice ABCD comes
together at a key line, with a super-tight Fib grouping. This happens the day
after the DOW and S&P peaked, and were weakening. Not only that, AGU rolled
over and did about as perfect of an entry trigger as I have ever seen,
by my most favorite parameters. It was triggered already by the point here on
the chart. This was very similar to the things I was seeing across the board in
many issues. I wonder how many saw this as a potentially extraordinary shorting
area?
Let's see how this one has played out so far.
AGU started to drop like a stone, and hasn't
look back since. It didn't 'see' the key median line at all, and just kept
falling. There was a nice 1.272 at that median line, too, but it didn't care.
This is why I don't use 'profit targets' at all. The next area I am watching is
that lower parallel, at another 1.272, with a key swing low point from back a
ways also coming in there. At this point, though, with the market so 'oversold'
and possibly due for a bounce, I'd be taking that into account in any
management decisions, without being stubborn about the area still being a bit
below. I'm not saying I think it is 'over' at this area, only that the odds are
favoring a strong bounce more and more as this area is approached.
Take a look
at some other related stocks such as POT, MOS, MON, and so on. It's amazing how
they are finally getting around to taking out and shooting the big, new bubble
leaders. Look at the coal stocks, the metals and mining stocks (more on this
next), and now the transports, especially dry shippers and the rails. Now,
that's what I call 'hedge fund redemptions'. I can't say for positive, but as
far as I know, all these high flyers were pumped up by endless hedge fund
money, and now with all the redemptions we are hearing about, they have to dump
them with reckless abandon. Not fun to play musical chairs with twenty people
and five chairs instead of nineteen, is it?
Let's look at
X on a daily chart.
I mentioned to a student (one that already
trades his own style, but who was nearing the start of mentoring with me) that
I was watching this area in X (by the last arrow). The other arrows show the
reasons I was developing increased confidence in my choice of sets here. Keep
in mind, this is just a two set framework, and would not be the sole basis for
me to construct a trade premise. Notice the area of the four arrows, and how X
tried multiple times to get over that key weekly upsloping set line.
Notice, too,
that the area of the lower arrow was an area of an ABCD and the key weekly
lower parallel, and hence was a bounce spot I was watching for a potential
lower timeframe trade. Given the bear market at hand, I was expecting the odds
favored X rolling at the next key spot. I think my student worked up the area,
liked it, and bought some puts, at least that's what I recall he told me. Why
point that out? It works into an interesting management point coming
next.
Let's see what happened from here.
X dropped strongly off the area, and then
started to react at expected areas repeatedly. After rolling off the key spot,
it went right back to the weekly lower parallel, at the fourth from last arrow.
This is not something I would expect off a big, weekly ABCD at a key line. From
there it bounces slightly, but struggles with the downsloping median line, at
the third last arrow. It rolls down again, taking out that key weekly lower
parallel. It then approaches the lower parallel of the downsloping set, and
bounces up to 'test' the weekly lower parallel at the second last arrow, also
marked 'b'.
It rolls down, and then takes another shot at that line, at the
last arrow, marked 'd'. This also completes a small ABCD where both the B and D
points 'test' that key line from below. This is a very nice setup unto itself.
It starts to roll beautifully off that area. Before we move on, I think my
student (who, as I mentioned, was trading his own style and was preparing to
meet with me to start learning a bit about my work), sold his puts somewhere on
the way to that lower parallel, off the setup area. Most would say that was
quite a nice play (keep in mind, I am not in people's accounts, so all I have
to go on is what I hear, and I make no guarantees that he actually did anything
I thought he said he did). As we move on, though, we will look at some
management ideas.
Let's move ahead to X's current position, and see what happened
from here.
X has just went down and down and down.. From
about 170 to just over 60. Now, I'm not saying that catching some of the move
from the area of the arrow that shows the potential trade area (PTA) down
towards the next arrow after that by the lower parallel there isn't a good
trade. But what is the premise before the trade was opened? Is this a high
flyer that may finally be giving way in a bear market that you feel is really
picking up steam? What if that key ABCD and lower parallel (the one that isn't
marked, but completed at the line intersection and arrow that bounced up into
the PTA we started from) gives way? Would one possible course be that it really
flushes?
You see, if you don't decide on the premise, think about potential
scenarios, and then come up with a management plan, you likely won't
stay with the trades that really do go and go. Most don't go, but if your style
is to try to catch the ones that do, you have to set up your management so you
don't take it off very early and miss the big move. I'm not saying I suggest
you trade for the big move, I'm just saying make sure you know what you are
trying to trade, and then set up your management plan based on that.
Some people
are target traders, and that's fine for them. My style is trend following, so I
try to set up a plan to ride with trends until they tell me they are over. And
this applies, in my opinion, regardless of if this is a daily or weekly stock
chart, or a mini tick chart, as long as it is liquid, and the noise level
doesn't get too great due to the small tick chart size. The same principles
apply, and the approach is pretty much the same for me.
Well, that's
all I have to give. It's been an incredible month, and if we can keep the
system together, there should be some more incredible months coming. I've never
seen anything like this before, and comments about this being a once per
century phenomenon, I think, are very accurate. Given the level of
manipulation, I'm just not sure what the future has in store, but, as I've said
many times, I don't feel that I need to know to find potential trades. I just
trade the setups, and leave it at that.
As far as my experience goes, it doesn't
really matter what the market does, there are always setups somewhere if you
just hunt for them. Sure, maybe there may be a time when the market isn't
tradable, but that would likely take some extreme collapse in the system. So,
although I love to ponder the greater market direction or condition, it really
is all for intellectual enjoyment, as the setups always dominate the trading,
not the thoughts about what might be happening. And, again, there seem to be
more setups than I could ever find the time to trade.
The next
commentary will be next month's edition, posted by Sunday evening, November 2,
2008.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
 NOTE: Reading this page or
any page on the Kane Trading website, or utilizing this website and any
material
contained herein in any way, shall constitute an
acknowledgment that you have read, understood and agreed
to all
the disclaimers,
terms & conditions, and
policies of this site.
|
|
|
This
website is best viewed with MSIE 6.0, text size set to medium, and screen
resolution set to 1024 by 768.
Copyright
© 2008 Kane Trading. All rights reserved.
|
|
